2025-11-12 15:01
by
nlpkak
As a longtime basketball analyst who's been covering the PBA for over a decade, I've got to say the upcoming All-Filipino Conference has me particularly excited this year. There's something special about seeing our homegrown talents battle it out without the usual imports, and this season promises to deliver some truly memorable matchups. I've spent the past week digging through team schedules, analyzing player rotations, and frankly losing sleep over some of the potential championship scenarios we might witness. The conference kicks off on March 8th with a double-header that features defending champions Barangay Ginebra taking on the revamped Rain or Shine Elasto Painters, followed by what I believe could be an early championship preview between San Miguel Beermen and TNT Tropang Giga.
Looking at the complete schedule spanning 11 weeks with 56 elimination round games before we even get to the playoffs, what strikes me most is how tightly packed the calendar appears. Teams will be playing back-to-back games more frequently than in previous seasons, with some squads facing three games in just eight days. This compressed schedule favors teams with deeper benches, and I'm keeping my eye particularly on Magnolia Hotshots, who've consistently demonstrated they can maintain defensive intensity even with their second unit on the floor. Their March 15th clash against Ginebra could set the tone for the entire conference, especially considering how their defensive schemes have historically contained Ginebra's transition game. What worries me though, and this connects directly to our recent national team struggles, is whether our PBA teams have learned from Gilas' recent defensive lapses.
The past two defeats saw Gilas giving up a lot of three-pointers against their opponents, and frankly, it was painful to watch. We're talking about opponents shooting 45% from beyond the arc across those two games, which in modern basketball is simply unacceptable. I noticed similar patterns emerging in the Commissioner's Cup, where several PBA teams seemed slow to close out on shooters, particularly in transition situations. This becomes especially crucial when we look at key matchups like the April 2nd game between TNT and NLEX. TNT attempted the most three-pointers last conference at 32.5 per game, while NLEX ranked near the bottom in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 36.8%. If Road Warriors don't fix their perimeter defense, they could get blown out by 20-plus points in that game.
What I love about the All-Filipino format is how it tests coaching creativity, particularly in designing defensive schemes without relying on an import to anchor the paint. Teams like Blackwater and Terrafirma, who've traditionally struggled, have an opportunity to level the playing field if they can implement disciplined defensive systems. I'm personally excited to see how new coaches like Yeng Guiao approach this challenge with NLEX, given his reputation for crafting unpredictable defensive schemes. His matchup against Tim Cone's Ginebra on April 18th presents a fascinating tactical battle between two of the league's most brilliant basketball minds.
The mid-conference stretch from April 10th to 25th features what I'm calling the "make or break" sequence for several teams. Phoenix Super LPG faces four playoff teams from last conference in just 16 days, including what I anticipate will be a physically demanding back-to-back against Meralco and San Miguel. Their ability to defend the three-point line during this stretch will likely determine their playoff fate, especially considering they allowed the second-most three-pointers last conference. Having reviewed their preseason games, I noticed they're experimenting with more aggressive switching schemes, but whether this solves their perimeter defense issues remains to be seen.
As we approach the final elimination games in early May, the race for playoff positioning tends to expose which teams have truly developed their defensive identity. Based on what I've observed in practice sessions and preseason, I'm predicting San Miguel and Ginebra will secure top two spots, but the 3rd through 6th positions are completely up for grabs. The May 5th matchup between Magnolia and TNT could very well determine who gets that crucial twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals. What gives Magnolia the edge in my book is their commitment to defensive fundamentals – they held opponents to just 31.2% from three-point range in the last All-Filipino conference, a statistic that becomes increasingly valuable in high-pressure playoff games.
The playoffs begin May 12th with the quarterfinals, followed by best-of-seven semifinals starting May 22nd, and what I hope will be an epic finals series beginning June 5th. Having covered 14 All-Filipino conferences throughout my career, I've noticed that championship teams almost always rank in the top three in three-point defense during the playoffs. This statistical trend shouldn't surprise anyone who understands modern basketball, but it's remarkable how many teams still underestimate its importance. My prediction – and I'm going out on a limb here – is that we'll see a San Miguel versus Ginebra finals, with the Beermen lifting the trophy in six games. Their offseason focus on defensive rotations and closeouts, combined with June Mar Fajardo's interior presence, creates the perfect formula to contain the league's elite shooting teams. Whatever happens, this conference promises to deliver the hard-nosed, fundamentally sound basketball that makes the PBA's All-Filipino Cup so special year after year.
